Simulation Disclaimer

This disclaimer serves to inform visitors of this website about what kinds of information can be more or less reliably extracted from a computer simulation, and what kinds of information cannot be reliably or at all extracted from a computer simulation.

This simulation disclaimer does not replace the general disclaimer of this website. On the contrary, this simulation disclaimer intends to extend and supplement the general disclaimer and to make a few of the implications of computer simulations clearer to the reader.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical tool, based on random numbers and systematic analysis, that aims to learn properties of a system by investigating statistics like means, standard deviations, and probabilities.

What the statistics reflect about the system are averages, generated by suitable mathematical techniques. The details of those techniques are several, and they differ in various respects. This is not important for the most important point about simulation results, however.

The most important point about simulation results is that it is impossible to predict or say what will happen in any particular individual case. Only the average behavior or certain characteristics thereof can be computed within the limits of statistical analysis.

In more clear words:

  • Never can an individual expect any particular outcome happen to them that was shown or apparent as an element in a Monte Carlo simulation.
  • Simulation results are not and do not provide any sort of guarantee or certainty regarding the outcome of simulated events.
  • While simulation results are often fascinating and appear to show possible opportunities, they are not meant or intended as how-to guides or incentives.
  • Simulation results are intended as in-depth analyses of a scientific kind, which will usually involve assumptions and simplifications that must be considered very carefully.
  • Simulation results may be intended as clarifications that should help thinking about and re-evaluating widespread beliefs found elsewhere.

In the most clear way I can think of:

  • Every person is solely responsible for their own decisions. Proceed with your actions at your own risk.

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